Category Archives: Articles

Remodeled Space For Aging In Place | The Daily Oklahoman

*You might have to press pause on the video just below if you want to read everything before you watch it, it seems to be playing automatically.

A quick note before the video/article:

Early in 2017 I found myself in the middle of a transaction that had a very strong thread for all parties involved, aging family members. My sellers were helping their mother sell their childhood home, which needless to say had to be emotionally impactful. Not long after the house went on the market I was approached by a lady saying that her daughter lived a few doors down from the house, and they thought it would be nice to live closer to one another. I later discovered that this very witty and charming person was in the earlier stages of an Alzheimer’s diagnosis. Long story short they purchased the home after a few bumps in the road, and she and her daughter renovated the home – and it is immaculate…

I’m currently writing this with tears in my eyes next to my grandfather who is on his deathbed. In the last few years I lived for a while with my grandparents as they were getting settled into their final residence. We’ve been preparing for this moment for a long time, and in the middle of taking care of him for his final stage of life I saw this article pop up in The Daily Oklahoman, telling the wonderful story of some of my newfound friends, Deb and Amy on one side and Larry and Sue on the other. I’m so grateful for everyone involved. Being a part of their story makes me appreciate my own even more, and I’m pretty much bursting at the seems already with love and appreciation for my own family.

-Grady

Remodeled Space For Aging In Place

By Dyrinda Tyson For The Oklahoman dyrinda@gmail.com  


NORMAN — Amy Brewer wanted her mother closer, especially when memory issues began to surface. But it took several years and an Alzheimer’s diagnosis for things to come to a head.

“In April, she got lost for five hours,” she said. “That’s when I decided that she needed to move.”

Her mother, Deborah Brewer, raised a finger.

“Now I have a different story,” she interjected. She offered her explanation, mostly off the record, possibly tongue-in-cheek. “So I knew where I was,” she concluded with a nod.

Still, her daughter saw it as a call to action. Interstate 35 and major chunk of Norman lay between them. And as unpredictable as Alzheimer’s disease can be, the one thing for sure is it doesn’t retreat.

“I decided I’d put this off long enough,” Amy Brewer said. “For five years, I knew we needed to do something. And I’d been floating the idea and floating the idea.”

Her mother, though, was reluctant, at least until Amy played her trump card: “I finally said, ‘There’s going to come a time when I’m going to have to take your car away, and you’re still going to want to see your grandkids. So you need to be right by us. And, she said, ‘I understand.’ ”

The perfect bungalow came on the market that weekend, just two doors down from Amy’s house in central Norman. Things bogged down, however, as she grappled with the logistics of selling one house while buying another.

The bungalow was still on the market when they finally laid a plan in place. They gave the go-ahead to their Realtor, Grady Carter, of Metro Brokers in Norman. But they worried about trust issues on the seller’s side.

“He must have done some magic on his end, though,” Amy Brewer recalled. “I was in San Francisco about to board a flight to New Zealand.”

That meant many hours in the air cut off from communications, so she laid it out in a phone call to Carter. “I said ‘I’m going to land in 13 hours, Grady. Whatever they need us to pay, we’ll pay. Whatever earnest money, we’ll do cash.’ ”

That did the trick. By the time Amy Brewer came home from her extended trip, the deal was done. Friends had pitched in during her absence to ensure Deborah Brewer made it to closing, then helped her move out of her old home and into her daughter’s house to await remodeling on her new digs.

Oh, yes, the remodeling.

“I was really focused on securing this house, which took a long time,” Amy Brewer said. “And after we purchased the house, I realized I had plans to do a complete remodel and no plans to do a complete remodel. I guess someone who knew what they were doing would’ve had that lined up before they closed. A week or two went by, and I realized I had no idea what I was doing.”

Smooth transition

So she did what almost everyone does in this day and age, namely take her plight to social media. And social media gave back, leading her to Kendra Orcutt and her Home Mods By Therapists team. Orcutt channels her experience as an occupational therapist into designing spaces to accommodate people’s physical challenges.

Orcutt and her team opened up the space inside by getting rid of hallways, allowing the bedrooms and bathrooms to open directly up into the main part of the house.

They widened hallways, repurposed space lost to a heater closet to enlarge the laundry room and installed a sliding barn door on the master bathroom, adding not only a trendy touch but one that saves space and is easier for a person on a walker or cane to open.

Even the color scheme in the kitchen was designed with a purpose. The gray-and-black floor tiles are low-contrast, which is easier to navigate with impaired vision or balance.

“By making this house accessible to memory loss, she doesn’t ever have to move,” Orcutt said. “She won’t have to relearn another space. She knows her daughter is down the street. All of those things are important. So what I did was I made things easier to live in.”

Easier to live in, but not institutional. It’s often just a matter of style. What appears to be a towel rack by the bathtub, for example, is actually a grab bar. Its brushed silver surface matches the faucet and, frankly, it could function just fine as a towel rack.

And that’s the point, Orcutt said. “Everything we did in the house, someone else could live in.”

That was a major consideration as Amy Brewer worked to persuade her mother to trade her four-bedroom home for the bungalow.

“She had a great big house, and I didn’t want her to feel like she was having to give up anything,” she said.

Deborah Brewer finally moved into her revamped home in late November. She gave up two bedrooms and a lot of square feet in the move, but may have gained so much more in return.

Amy Brewer smiled as her tween daughter, Harper Sterr, wrapped her arms around her grandmother. “These two are best friends,” she said.

Deborah Brewer held out a hand to compare their heights. “And she’s almost as tall as me.”

Source: Remodeled space for aging in place | NewsOK.com

Planner Shares System For Managing Money – Business Insider

Being a real estate agent is often a lot like being a party planner. There are several people and issues that need to be kept up with, and consistently held to account. Part of making sure that the party goes off without a hitch when working with a homebuyer is making sure that they have a financial plan to execute the purchase. Most people like to keep their finances rather private, so it’s important that people know that making that plan can be done in private. I often recommend that people use a few different free services to monitor their finances and credit: Mint.com, and Credit Karma. They both run ads, but if you can just ignore those you can be a step ahead. Feel free to send me a message if you have any questions about either one of those services. Now, read this article and if you don’t have these basic financial tools in place start setting them up. You can do it – now let’s make a plan and throw that party!

If you are seriously wanting to get your financial house in order you might reach out to an accountant/cpa and maybe even a financial planner to look at how you can use your money to best fit you life and goals. And you might also talk to an estate planner in case you are worried about what will happen to your assets in the case of you passing away. My sister Claire is actually an estate planner and you are more than welcome to call her to ask about what that looks like, just tell her that I sent you. 🙂

Claire Bailey,  Bailey and Poarch: (405) 329-6600

Grady Carter
Realtor®, GRI
Metro Brokers of Oklahoma
Lic. #160723

 

“A few years ago, I put in place a ‘Money Flow’ system to help my family track our spending.”

A Financial Planner Shares Her Personal System For Managing Money

family walking beach winter

The author’s family is not pictured.Flickr / James Brown

Part of the reason we accumulate debt is that there are so many distractions in our lives – things we want to buy but don’t need.

But we also ring up debt because we simply don’t understand the flow of our income and expenses, so we can’t accurately estimate how much money we have available to spend.

I’ve struggled with this myself. A few years ago, I put in place a “Money Flow” system to help my family track our spending.

You may have heard of a system like this before, but follow along on this tour, because it really works.

Putting the pieces in place

1. Set up two free checking accounts:

  • One to pay fixed expenses (such as the mortgage, car payments and utility bills).
  • One to pay variable expenses (groceries, gas, clothing and so on).

2. Set up a high-yield online savings account.

We call this our “curveball” account. It’s an emergency fund for use when life throws us curveballs – large medical bills, a job loss or reduction in income, major home repairs, that kind of thing.

3. Make a plan for big-ticket items.

My husband and I agreed that we would use one family credit card for large purchases, such as airline tickets and hotel stays. We still have our separate credit cards – it’s wise to keep your own credit cards to maintain your credit score and credit history. Using them once or twice a year should be sufficient. And don’t close those cards because it will affect your overall credit score.

Implementing the system

1. Draw up a budget for fixed and variable expenses.

Add up how much you need in each category. This will be your guideline for how much should be in each of your checking accounts.

Fixed expenses might include:

  • Rent or mortgage payment
  • Property taxes
  • Utilities (gas, electric, water, etc.)
  • Home, auto and umbrella insurance
  • Life, disability and long-term-care insurance premiums
  • Health insurance premiums (if not taken out of your paycheck)
  • Cable TV, Internet, phone and cellphone
  • Gym or yoga memberships
  • Debt payments (credit cards, student loans, car loans, personal loans, etc.)
  • Savings (yes, this is an expense – pay yourself first!)

Variable expenses might include:

  • Groceries
  • Eating out
  • Gas
  • Clothing/shoes
  • Personal services (haircuts, doctor visit copays, etc.)
  • Entertainment

2. Distribute money to the accounts.

When your paycheck comes in, allocate the designated amounts into each checking account based on the budget you created. The sum earmarked for the curveball account can go there directly.

3. Pay fixed costs directly.

All bills are paid automatically from our fixed-expenses account. We do not have to write any checks, and no debit card is necessary. This account has a cushion of a few hundred extra dollars in case a bill shows up unexpectedly or before we have a chance to replenish the account.

4. Pay variable expenses from the second account.

This account should have a debit card, which you can use for purchases.

5. Link the curveball account to either checking account.

If an emergency arises, you can transfer funds within 24 to 48 hours. You can then access the money with a check or debit card.

Realizing the benefits

Once I implemented this system, the process of tracking expenses wasn’t so cumbersome anymore. Separating expenses into fixed and variable categories meant I didn’t have to worry constantly about checking account balances. Having fewer transactions in each account also made it easier to see the bigger picture of our spending.

The chart below depicts the flow of money.

Money Flow Chart2

* After taxes and pre-tax retirement plan contributions.Chart courtesy of MainStreet Financial Planning

Every family’s finances are different, of course. Feel free to customize my system as necessary. The point is to get – and keep – a grasp on the flow of your money. If you know exactly what’s coming in and going out, you can’t be surprised by debt.

Source: Planner shares system for managing money – Business Insider

5 Predictions for the Housing Market in 2016 – NerdWallet

One thing that seems more and more clear to me is that so goes millennials so goes the nation in next decade. If millennials decide not to buy houses there is going to be a large wealth shift – we will become even more of a renter society. So, a stable housing market that young people want to participate in matters. A lot of people are outraged by our nation, and world’s growing wealth gap (and in many ways rightfully so), but not participating in ownership of housing could be one of the greatest factors in the next great wealth shift. A lot of numbers show that young people do want to own their own stuff, and have a more self-sustaining lifestyle in a lot of ways. I’m just very curious which direction my peers and I are going to trend towards in regards to housing.

Grady Carter
Realtor®, GRI
Metro Brokers of Oklahoma
Lic. #160723

5 Predictions for the Housing Market in 2016

  February 5, 2016  Home Search, Mortgages

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5-predictions-for-housing-market-in-2016

A New Year brings new opportunities, and that’s certainly true if you’re looking to sell or buy a home in 2016. What exactly does the year ahead have in store for housing?

Industry experts point to a lot of promising signs — moderate increases in prices and sales, the creation of more households, and an improving job market — for the national housing picture in 2016. But the gains won’t look like they have over the past two years, and we’ll see more local housing markets stabilizing in the near future. And that’s a good thing.

After the deluge of damaging foreclosures and short sales that flooded U.S. cities during the downturn, a number of housing markets have recovered in a big way in recent years, to the relief of homeowners and economic analysts alike. In 2013, there were 5.09 million existing-home sales nationally, according to the National Association of Realtors. In 2014, sales dropped by 3.1% to 4.93 million. Although final figures for 2015 are not yet available, NAR predicted existing-home sales would close out the year at 5.3 million — nearly 7% higher than the previous year.

With NAR forecasting existing-home sales to rise by 3% to 5.45 million in 2016, experts say we’ll start seeing more balance return to the housing market in the near future.

Here’s a closer look at five key housing predictions for 2016:

1. Rising rates will squeeze first-time homebuyers most

The Fed’s move to increase interest rates in December reflects the major strides the U.S. economy has made as it emerges from the Great Recession. Higher rates (though they haven’t happened yet), along with rising prices and limited supply, will make it harder for some to afford a new home. The good news: Long-term mortgage rates will see only a gradual increase this year and will remain relatively low compared with what they were before the downturn.

Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages, which averaged under 4% for most of 2015, will average 4.4% this year, according to Freddie Mac. Meanwhile, housing data firm CoreLogic, in its latest U.S. Economic Outlook report, predicts mortgage rates will increase roughly half a percentage point in 2016 over 2015.

If you’re a first-time homebuyer or you earn a lower income and haven’t had a raise lately, the rate increase might make it harder for you to afford a home. For the most part, though, a slight rate bump isn’t cause for panic and is unlikely to sideline most potential homebuyers, says Christian Redfearn, an associate professor of real estate at the University of Southern California.

Increasing mortgage rates will clamp down on refinancing activity as fewer homeowners will have enough incentives to refinance their current mortgages, according to CoreLogic. As a result, the firm is forecasting refinance originations to decrease by one-third this year.

2. Sales will rise, but modestly

Even though mortgage rates are rising, home sales will still be up about 3% this year as existing homeowners jump into the selling pool, according to a forecast from the National Association of Realtors.

After years of depressed prices, many homeowners have regained much of the equity they lost in the downturn, so they may seek to cash in on that value and sell in 2016 to move up to their next home, NAR President Tom Salomone says. In some markets, though, prices have increased too quickly, causing a bumpy recovery that’s priced out some potential homebuyers, he says.

“We don’t want these big peaks and valleys we’ve seen since the downturn,” Salomone says. “Steady, sustainable growth is what we’re after.”

As the economy continues to grow and more jobs are added, potential homebuyers with strong credit will be more willing to jump into the market too, Salomone says.

3. House prices will increase, too, but not at 2015 levels

Another trend that sellers in particular will appreciate: Home prices will rise again this year by 4% to 5% as demand increases faster than supply, according to CoreLogic. Although the increase in home prices will outpace inflation, it’s less than the 6% increase seen in 2015.

The more measured growth of home sales and prices is good news for the millions of younger Americans who are on the cusp of homeownership. However, experts agree that a shortage of housing inventory and new construction, which leads to bidding wars and competitive market conditions, will fuel higher home prices until more sellers enter the market or more homes are built.

“We haven’t built enough housing for a long time,” Redfearn says.

4. Housing demand will be up

The improving job market has been a boon for new household formations, a term that refers to configurations of people who live together under one roof, be it you and a few roommates, a married couple, a nuclear family of four, or just you. This increase will continue in 2016, with more than 1.25 million new households expected to be formed.

Millennials — all 83.1 million of them — now outnumber baby boomers and comprise more than a quarter of the U.S. population, according to the Census Bureau. Many of them are moving out of their parents’ homes, getting married or having children. As they do, these young Americans will create higher housing demand, particularly for rental homes.

This new surge in demand is expected to spur more construction of single-family homes and multifamily apartment buildings, but not at the pace needed to keep up with new households. NAR forecasts 1.3 million single-family housing starts this year, but the country needs 1.5 million to keep pace with demand.

Freddie Mac predicts total housing starts will increase 16% from 2015 to 2016, but it’s still not enough. That’s why more people are turning to the rental market, which is faced with a similar crunch.

5. Rents will also rise

Construction of multifamily homes will increase this year, but there’s still a shortage of rental homes for the millions who need them. Rental vacancy rates are at or near their lowest level in 30 years, according to the CoreLogic report. Accordingly, rents in 2016 will continue to rise faster than inflation, CoreLogic predicts.

With rents climbing, it’s no wonder so many millennials struggle to afford a down payment. For starters, 41% of them are saddled with student loans that frequently run into the tens of thousands, according to NAR. Plus, wages are growing slowly or not at all as rents and other living costs get steeper. It’s a combination of challenges that makes it hard to save for a down payment on a home, experts say.

Homeownership rates will dip slightly again this year as the number of new households that rent exceeds the number of new homebuyers. However, 94% of renters under 34 surveyed by NAR say they still want to buy a home in the future, and that bodes well for a more balanced market in the years to come, Salomone says.

The bottom line

The housing market has come a long way since the Great Recession, but the recovery has been uneven, and some areas still have a long way to go.

A sustainable housing market, Salomone says, is one that’s fair for both buyers and sellers. All the signs we’ve mentioned point to a more balanced road ahead for housing, but it’ll take a little more time to get there.

Where 15 Can Beat 30 – What Kind of Loan Should I Get?

With rates changing (if you don’t know about this it’s ok, but they are…) have you wondered how that might affect the loan that you should consider taking out for your home? Well, here is a very wonky article that can help you dive into this under discussed, and very important topic. It might be a good idea to play around with a mortgage calculator to see what the difference might be for you.

-Grady

 

The Federal Reserve Board is on track to raise interest rates as soon as today. It’s a move that will mean higher mortgage rates, higher monthly payments, and reduced purchasing power for new borrowers. Homebuyers, who haven’t seen an interest rate increase in nearly 10 years, may be tempted by lower-rate 15-year mortgages.

Where 15 Can Beat 30

A 15-year mortgage is a smart choice for households in housing markets where price increases have been modest, but a tougher call for households in hotter markets.

The Federal Reserve Board is on track to raise interest rates as soon as today. It’s a move that will mean higher mortgage rates, higher monthly payments, and reduced purchasing power for new borrowers. Homebuyers, who haven’t seen an interest rate increase in nearly 10 years, may be tempted by lower-rate 15-year mortgages. But do the advantages of a 15-year mortgage outweigh the costs? The answer depends partly on where you live.

We’ve crunched the numbers for the largest U.S. metros, and found that:

  • With the median US household income, a 30-year mortgage allows homebuyers to purchase 46% more house, but a 15-year mortgage provides triple the paid equity in just 5 years.
  • Homebuyers in areas where prices have a history of rising will benefit greatly from faster equity-building with a 15-year mortgage.
  • Buyers in areas with historically slow growing to flat housing prices will benefit less from shorter-term mortgages and potentially more from the borrowing power of a 30-year loan.

The Tradeoffs Between 30- and 15-year Mortgages

In general, 30-year mortgages have three advantages:

  • Monthly payments are lower
  • Borrowing power is higher
  • Tax benefits are greater

The primary advantage of a 30-year mortgage is lower monthly payments. On the median valued U.S. home, a 30-year mortgage comes with a payment that is $320, or 27%, lower than a 15-year mortgage. Lower payments also mean that a borrower’s debt-to-income (DTI) ratio is lower than a 15–year loan. This allows middle class buyers (a household earning the U.S. median income) to borrow $77,000, or 46%, more with a 30-year mortgage than a 15-year. Last, borrowers with a 30-year mortgage can write off nearly $68,000 more than a 15-year mortgage via the mortgage-interest deduction on their federal income taxes.

Trulia 15v30

A 15-year mortgage has three advantages over a 30-year mortgage:

  • Equity builds faster
  • Interest rates are lower
  • Loan term is shorter

The primary advantage of a 15-year mortgage is that a larger share of each monthly payment goes towards paying off the loan principal. After five years (the number of years the average young household moves), equity gained from paying off the loan balance is more than $39,000, or three-times greater with a 15-year mortgage on the median value home. In addition, the 15-year rate is 3.36%, compared with 4.12% for a 30-year note. And over the loan term, borrowers with 15-year mortgages pay just under $40,000 in interest with a 15-year compared to over $107,000 with a 30-year on the median value home.

In Bargain Markets, 15-year Mortgages Are A Homebuyer’s Best Bet For Equity

Home equity can come from three sources: down payment, principal reduction, and home value appreciation. This means that in markets with slow appreciation, a larger share of equity will come from homeowners paying down the loan balance when compared to home value appreciation. In such markets, 15-year loans offer a relatively faster route to building equity.

Trulia_15yrmortgage_LineGraph

We’ve identified the 10 markets in the country where, after five years of ownership, homeowners will have the most equity from principal reduction relative to home price appreciation. At the top of the list are markets exclusively in the Bargain Belt (Midwest and Southeast). In each of these markets, 15-year mortgages can provide over twice the equity relative to home price appreciation. For example, homeowners in Dayton, Ohio, can earn $22,018 in equity from mortgage payments with a 15-year mortgage, which is 2.37-times greater than the $9,295 gained from price appreciation. With a 30-year mortgage, payments would net households just $7,393. Clearly, household in these markets would gain much more equity by paying down their mortgage principle with a 15-year loan than from home value appreciation.

Markets where Principal Repayment is Key to Equity Growth
# U.S. Metro 5-year Equity from Principal Repayment, 15-year 5-year Equity from Principal Repayment, 30-Year 5-year Equity from Home Value Appreciation 5-year Principal Repayment Relative to Appreciation, 15-year* 5-year Principal Repayment Relative to Appreciation, 30-year
1 Dayton, OH $22,018 $7,393 $9,295 2.37 0.80
2 Cleveland, OH $26,906 $9,034 $11,960 2.25 0.76
3 Toledo, OH $21,193 $7,116 $9,667 2.19 0.74
4 Akron, OH $26,993 $9,063 $12,420 2.17 0.73
5 Rochester, NY $27,704 $9,302 $12,862 2.15 0.72
6 Detroit, MI $13,171 $4,422 $6,180 2.13 0.72
7 Greensboro-High Point, NC $24,924 $8,369 $11,778 2.12 0.71
8 Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI $43,508 $14,608 $20,620 2.11 0.71
9 Memphis, TN $23,289 $7,819 $11,093 2.10 0.70
10 Winston-Salem, NC $26,544 $8,912 $12,668 2.10 0.70

In Pricey Markets, 15-year Mortgages Are A Tougher Call

In markets with strong home price appreciation, deciding between a 15-year and 30-year mortgage is a tougher call. Like bargain markets, 15-year loans provide more equity from principal repayment than from appreciation. The difference, however, is much smaller. In pricey San Francisco and San Jose, Calif., 15-year mortgages provide just 1.35 times more equity from principal payoff than appreciation. Still, the difference in equity from principal repayment is great between a 30-year and a 15-year mortgage. For example, households in Orange County would stand to gain nearly $100,000 more in equity after 5 years by choosing a 15-year mortgage.

Markets where Appreciation Drives Equity Growth
# U.S. Metro 5-year Equity from Principal Repayment, 15-year 5-year Equity from Principal Repayment, 30-Year 5-year Equity from Home Value Appreciation 5-year Principal Repayment Relative to Appreciation, 15-year 5-year Principal Repayment Relative to Appreciation, 30-year
1 San Francisco, CA $247,382 $83,061 $184,397 1.34 0.45
2 San Jose, CA $203,060 $68,179 $150,088 1.35 0.45
3 Orange County, CA $139,362 $46,792 $96,300 1.45 0.49
4 Los Angeles, CA $112,946 $37,922 $76,446 1.48 0.50
5 Oakland, CA $136,768 $45,921 $92,323 1.48 0.50
6 San Diego, CA $106,895 $35,891 $72,083 1.48 0.50
7 Ventura County, CA $111,904 $37,573 $73,109 1.53 0.51
8 Boston, MA $90,176 $30,277 $58,567 1.54 0.52
9 Austin, TX $50,860 $17,077 $32,778 1.55 0.52
10 Charleston, SC $44,599 $14,975 $28,684 1.55 0.52

Even though 15-year mortgages provide more equity through loan repayment than appreciation, they also come at the expense of borrowing power. In high-priced markets, the difference in nominal terms can be substantial. For example, middle class families in San Francisco (households making the median income of $104,000 per year) could purchase a $628,000 home with a 30-year mortgage but only a $430,000 home with a 15-year. This makes house hunting hard when the median priced home costs more than $1 million. As a results, this could be the difference between buying their dream-home or a starter for some households.

To show why households in expensive housing markets have a much tougher decision, we’ve put together a scatterplot of median home values for each of the 100 largest U.S. metros and matched it with the relative amount of equity a household can gain from payments on a 15-year mortgage. As you can see, households in cheaper markets (bottom axis) stand to gain relatively more equity (left axis) from paying down their mortgage with a 15-year note than through home value appreciation when compared to pricier markets. For example, households in affordable Cleveland, which has a median home value of $123,000, can reap 2.25 times the equity from loan repayment than appreciation. In San Francisco, the land of million dollar homes, the added value is only 1.34 times the equity.

Trulia scatter 30v15

The takeaway: 15-year mortgages are a great option for those wanting to build equity, regardless of how expensive or how fast growing a market is. However, in places with historically low appreciation, 15-year mortgages are a much better deal for building equity because it’s about the only way to do so though paying of the loan balance. On the other hand, in areas with historically high price appreciation that also happen to be expensive, households need to consider the tradeoffs between the borrowing power of 30-year mortgages, expected equity from home price appreciation, and whether or not they will use equity from their existing home as a down payment on their next one.

Methodology

To compare 30- and 15-year mortgages, we estimate the amount of equity a household would gain from both appreciation and from paying off the principal after 5-years of homeownership of the median valued home. We estimate this separately for each of the 100 largest U.S. metros, and use an annualized 20-year Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) house price growth rate to project home values 5 years into the future. Last, we compare the nominal and relative amount of equity a household would gain by choosing either a 30- or 15-year mortgage and comparing that to the expected gain in equity from home value appreciation.

Source: Where 15 Can Beat 30 – Trulia’s Blog

 

If you have questions of concerns please feel free to reach out to me:

Millennials And Money

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Are you a millennial? Do you worry about money? If you answered yes to both of those questions there are a lot of people in a very similar situation. I’ve decided to post this article because there will be a lot of people who will miss out on being able to buy a home because they didn’t plan ahead. People born around 1980 or after are simply more likely to have acquired with more debt (personal & societal), and less opportunity to grow financial wealth.

Now, before you get too scared it’s good to remember that we live in the wealthiest country in the world, and if you like me live in Oklahoma you live with a real estate market that doesn’t fluctuate very much, and homes tend to retain their value more than other parts of the country even in the midst of economic woes. So, if you are still reading this, and you answered yes to the first 2 questions then it’s time to start planning. Buying a home is one of the best ways for a middle class person/family to retain wealth. If you are interested in someday buying a home I would recommend starting with programs/apps like Mint.com (to take control of your finances), CreditKarma.com (so you won’t have any surprises when the time comes), and connect with a lender who can help you budget based on what you are likely to be approved for on a home loan.

Finally, I feel that I must say that if you are interested in having more money in the long term and you want to buy a home it would be wise to buy a home that is more affordable in the short term. This is mostly due to the amount of interest that you would otherwise pay on having a larger loan. If you would like for me to explain any of this further please feel free to contact me.

Grady Carter
Realtor®, GRI
Metro Brokers of Oklahoma
Lic. #160723

 

We’re Making Life Too Hard for Millennials

July 31, 2015

By STEVEN RATTNER

“Blame the baby boomers for the dangerous combination of burdensome debt and thin paychecks.”

Originally appeared in the New York Times.

TO some, millennials — those urban-dwelling, ride-sharing indefatigable social networkers — are engaged, upbeat and open to change. To others, they are narcissistic, lazy and self-centered.

I’m in the first camp, but regardless of your opinion, be fretful over their economic well-being and fearful — oh so fearful — for their prospects. The most educated generation in history is on track to becoming less prosperous, at least financially, than its predecessors.

They are faced with a slow economy, high unemployment, stagnant wages and student loans that constrict their ability both to maintain a reasonable lifestyle and to save for the future.

Longer term, rising federal debt payments and increased spending on Social Security and Medicare will inflict a tremendous financial burden on them, threatening their own prospect of receiving promised retirement benefits.

To a considerable extent, that’s the fault of my generation, the baby boomers. We were the children of the Greatest Generation, but we may also be the most irresponsible generation.

Americans between 18 and 34 are earning less today (after adjustment for inflation) than the same age group did in the past. A typical millennial averaged earnings of $33,883 (in 2013 dollars) between 2009 and 2013. That was down 9.3 percent (after adjustment for inflation) in just a decade and is the lowest since 1980. Older Americans have fared considerably better; earnings of all full-time workers were roughly flat between 2000 and 2011.

Still more striking is that millennials have endured falling earnings even though they have attended college in record numbers.

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So what’s going on? A major reason is the recession. Those who graduate in weaker economic times typically earn less than those who enter the work force during more robust periods. Starting behind often means never catching up.

Millennials who didn’t attend college have found their wages particularly squeezed, perhaps because of the decline of middle-skilled jobs in sectors like manufacturing, a clear consequence of globalization.

The wealth of millennials has been hit even harder than their incomes. Their median net worth was just $10,400 as of 2013, down 43 percent from the $18,200 that Gen Xers had in 1995 when they were under 35. With incomes squeezed, millennials are not only not saving much; they are dipping into whatever savings they do have.

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That’s worrisome when combined with weak incomes and low net worths. Millennials also participate less frequently in 401(k) plans and, scarred by the recession, invest less and keep more than half their money in cash — not a great long-term strategy.

Another huge drag on the finances of younger Americans is the mountain of student debt that has been piled up in recent years. Members of this year’s graduating class left their campuses owing an average of $35,051, about twice the levels borne by their counterparts two decades earlier (after adjusting for inflation).

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That’s in large part because college is becoming less affordable even as it has become increasingly necessary. Since 1993, average tuition has risen by 234 percent, far above the 63 percent overall inflation rate.

Saddled with debt and thin paychecks, millennials are delaying purchasing cars and new homes, low mortgage rates notwithstanding. By June of this year, homeownership among Americans under 35 fell to 34.8 percent, down from a high of 43.6 percent in 2004.

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Some of this may be cultural — younger Americans seem less interested in major possessions like cars and homes. But they are also delaying marriage and having children, which I believe is an indicator of strapped finances.

Just to complete a dismal picture, millennials will also be the victims of the irresponsible fiscal policies pursued in large part by members of my generation. The massive budget deficits of recent years and projected needs to meet future obligations to retirees will result in a steady increase in federal debt, from less than 80 percent of gross domestic product today to an estimated 181 percent of G.D.P. by 2090.

Rising national debt levels may threaten the ability of millennials to collect on promised Social Security and Medicare benefits. That’s not lost on millennials — only 45 percent expect to receive Social Security benefits during retirement (compared with 68 percent of baby boomers).

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We can’t completely undo the financial obstacles younger Americans face, such as their weak earnings. But we can start to put in place policies that will ease their burden. First and foremost would be to get the nation’s economy onto a stronger growth trajectory.

That’s a daunting challenge that would require revamping federal outlays to emphasize areas like education, infrastructure and research and development. Spending more on these areas would require higher taxes on my generation, which is getting a lot more from government than we are paying into it.

As part of redressing this imbalance, we need to reform the entitlement programs, for example, by reducing Social Security benefits for the highest income Americans. And important steps could be taken to both ease the burden of student debt for those who have already graduated and provide less expensive college opportunities for the rising generation.

Let’s at least start with a greater acknowledgment of the plight of millennials and the role that we — in many cases, their parents — played in creating it.

Source: We’re Making Life Too Hard for Millennials – The New York Times

Oklahoma Real Estate’s Next Hurdle: Fracking’s Hidden Hazards — NOVA Next | PBS

For several years I found that this topic was too “controversial” to bring up in a professional or even in a personal setting sometimes in Oklahoma. With so much of our industry being based around the energy sector I found that people just really didn’t want to talk about this. To be frank, this rhetoric seemed to be coming out of the far left, and we are a very (perhaps the most) conservative state. However, over the last few years it seems that Oklahomans regardless of political ideology have found themselves becoming more and more afraid that this storyline that came from the liberal media might actually have a leg to stand on – but ironically a less stable ground for that leg to stand and build homes on.

As I am no expert on seismology, or plate tectonics, or energy that isn’t coffee, I will refrain from too much speculation on what exactly is happening. With that said, I do know that I have been hearing on a regular basis in the Real Estate industry that we have a problem on our hands, and that insurance companies are declaring these quakes to be man-made and thus homeowners are likely to have no options of insurability against them… Most of my friends, family, clients (who are also my friends) seem to avoid politics and their dirty influences altogether – but potentially facing foundation problems that they won’t be insurable might be something worth at least having a conversation about. Having been a part of renovating and buying/selling houses over the last few years I can say that one of the big ticket items that has caused a lot of people to spend money that they aren’t able to get back on resale is  foundation repair – buyers assume that the house wouldn’t be sinking into the earth, but maybe that will be changing in Oklahoma…

Again, I am not intending to lead a revolution, but the lack of a meaningful conversation has caused me to ask what I’m going to do when my home has damage, or whether or not this could affect my job security. I feel like the risk of tornadoes is plenty to worry about, and many homes are adding tornado shelters, so I’d really prefer that we not have to deal with earthquakes if we don’t have to… Since I’m not the expert on earthquakes maybe I’ll just keep trying to read and converse with others about what should happen, but I am not sure that most of us can afford to wait much longer on this conversation about needed changes to begin. If you know something that I don’t know about this please do fill me in.

Business Card

Grady Carter
Realtor®, GRI
Metro Brokers of Oklahoma
Lic. #160723

Fracking’s Hidden Hazards

Late on a Saturday evening in November 2011, Sandra Ladra was reclining in a chair in her living room in Prague, Oklahoma, watching television with her family. Suddenly, the house started to shake, and rocks began to fall off her stone-faced fireplace, onto the floor and into Ladra’s lap, onto her legs, and causing significant injuries that required immediate medical treatment.

The first tremor that shook Ladra’s home was a magnitude-5.0 earthquake, an unusual event in what used to be a relatively calm state, seismically speaking. Two more struck the area over the next two days. More noteworthy, though, are her claims that the events were manmade. In a petition filed in the Lincoln County District Court, she alleges that the earthquake was the direct result of the actions of two energy companies, New Dominion and Spress Oil Company, that had injected wastewater fluids deep underground in the area.

oklahoma-house_damage

Ladra’s claim is not as preposterous as it may seem. Scientists have recognized since the 1960s that humans can cause earthquakes by injecting fluids at high pressure into the ground. This was first established near Denver, Colorado, at the federal chemical weapons manufacturing facility known as the Rocky Mountain Arsenal. Faced with the thorny issue of how to get rid of the arsenal’s chemical waste, the U.S. Army drilled a 12,044-feet-deep disposal well and began routinely injecting wastewater into it in March 1962.

Less than seven weeks later, earthquakes were reported in the area, a region that had last felt an earthquake in 1882. Although the Army initially denied any link, when geologist David Evans demonstrated a strong correlation between the Arsenal’s average injection rate and the frequency of earthquakes, the Army agreed to halt its injections.

Since then direct measurements, hydrologic modeling, and other studies have shown that earthquakes like those at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal occur when injection increases the fluid pressure in the pores and fractures of rocks or soil. By reducing the frictional force that resists fault slip, the increased pore pressure can lubricate preexisting faults. This increase alters the ambient stress level, potentially triggering earthquakes on favorably oriented faults.

Although injection-induced earthquakes have become commonplace across broad swaths of the central and eastern U.S over the last few years, building codes—and the national seismic hazard maps used to update them—don’t currently take this increased hazard into account. Meanwhile, nagging questions—such as how to definitively diagnose an induced earthquake, whether manmade quakes will continue to increase in size, and how to judge whether mitigation measures are effective—have regulators, industry, and the public on shaky ground.

Surge in Seismicity

The quake that shook Ladra’s home is one example of the dramatic increase in seismicity that began across the central and eastern U.S. in 2001. Once considered geologically stable, the midcontinent has grown increasingly feisty, recording an 11-fold increase in the number of quakes between 2008 and 2011 compared with the previous 31 years, according to a study published in Geologyin 2013.

The increase has been especially dramatic in Oklahoma, which in 2014 recorded 585 earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or greater—more than in the previous 35 years combined. “The increase in seismicity is huge relative to the past,” says Randy Keller, who retired in December after serving for seven years as the director of the Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS).

Yesterday, Oklahoma finally acknowledged that the uptick in earthquakes is likely due to wastewater disposal. “The Oklahoma Geological Survey has determined that the majority of recent earthquakes in central and north-central Oklahoma are very likely triggered by the injection of produced water in disposal wells,” the state reported on a new website. While the admission is an about-face for the government, which had previously questioned any link between the two, it doesn’t coincide with any new regulations intended to stop the earthquakes or improve building codes to cope with the tremors. For now, residents of Oklahoma may be just as vulnerable as they have been.

*This live-updated map shows all earthquakes magnitude 2.5 and greater for the last 30 days.

This surge in seismicity has been accompanied by a spike in the number of injection wells and the corresponding amount of wastewater disposed via those wells. According to the Railroad Commission of Texas, underground wastewater injection in Texas increased from 46 million barrels in 2005 to nearly 3.5 billion barrels in 2011. Much of that fluid has been injected in the Dallas area, where prior to 2008, only one possible earthquake large enough to be noticed by people had occurred in recorded history. Since 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented over 120 quakes in the area.

The increase in injection wells is due in large part to the rapid expansion of the shale-gas industry, which has unlocked vast new supplies of natural gas and oil that would otherwise be trapped in impermeable shale formations. The oil and gas is released by a process known as fracking, which injects a mix of water, chemicals, and sand at high enough pressure to fracture the surrounding rock, forming cracks through which the hydrocarbons, mixed with large volumes of fluid, can flow. The resulting mixture is pumped to the surface, where the hydrocarbons are separated out, leaving behind billions of gallons of wastewater, much of which is injected back underground.

Many scientists, including Keller, believe there is a correlation between the two increases. “It’s hard to look at where the earthquakes are, and where the injection wells are, and not conclude there’s got to be some connection,” he says. Rex Buchanan, interim director of the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS), agrees there’s a correlation for most of the recent tremors in his state. “Certainly we’re seeing a huge spike in earthquakes in an area where we’ve also got big disposal wells,” he says. But there have been other earthquakes whose cause “we’re just not sure about,” Buchanan says.

Diagnosing an Earthquake

Buchanan’s uncertainty stems in part from the fact that determining whether a specific earthquake was natural or induced by human activity is highly controversial. Yet this is the fundamental scientific question at the core of Ladra’s lawsuit and dozens of similar cases that have been filed across the heartland over the last few years. Beyond assessing legal liability, this determination is also important for assessing potential seismic hazard as well as for developing effective methods of mitigation.

One reason it’s difficult to assess whether a given earthquake was human-induced is that both types of earthquakes look similar on seismograms; they can’t be distinguished by casual observation. A second is that manmade earthquakes are unusual events; only about 0.1 percent of injection wells in the U.S. have been linked to induced earthquakes large enough to be felt, according to Arthur McGarr, a geologist at the USGS Earthquake Science Center. Finally, scientists have comparatively few unambiguous examples of induced earthquakes. That makes it difficult to create a yardstick against which potential “suspects” can be compared. Like a team of doctors attempting to diagnose a rare disease, scientists must examine all the “symptoms” of an earthquake to make the best possible pronouncement.

To accomplish this, two University of Texas seismologists developed a checklist of seven “yes” and “no” questions that focus on four key characteristics: the area’s background seismicity, the proximity of an earthquake to an active injection well, the timing of the seismicity relative to the onset of injection, and the injection practices. Ultimately, “if an injection activity and an earthquake sequence correlate in space and time, with no known previous earthquake activity in the area, the earthquakes were likely induced,” wrote McGarr and co-authors inScience earlier this year.

fracking-waste-disposal

*waste arrives by tanker truck at a wastewater disposal facility near Platteville, Colorado.

These criteria, however, remain open to interpretation, as the Prague example illustrates. Ladra’s petition cites three scientific studies that have linked the increase in seismicity in central Oklahoma to wastewater injection operations. ACornell University-led study, which specifically examined the earthquake in which Ladra claims she was injured, concluded that event began within about 200 meters of active injection wells—closely correlating in space—and was therefore induced.

In a March 2013 written statement, the OGS had concluded that this earthquake was the result of natural causes, as were two subsequent tremors that shook Prague over the next few days. The second earthquake, a magnitude-5.7 event that struck less than 24 hours later, was the largest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma.

The controversy hinged on several of the “symptoms,” including the timing of the seismicity. Prior to the Prague sequence, scientists believed that a lag time of weeks to months between the initiation of injection and the onset of seismicity was typical. But in Prague, the fluid injection has been occurring for nearly 20 years. The OGS therefore concluded that there was no clear temporal correlation. By contrast, the Cornell researchers decided that the diagnostic time scale of induced seismicity needs to be reconsidered.

Another key issue that has been raised by the OGS is that of background seismicity. Oklahoma has experienced relatively large earthquakes in the past, including a magnitude-5.0 event that occurred in 1952 and more than 10 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or greater since then, so the Prague sequence was hardly the first bout of shaking in the region.

The uncertainty associated with both these characteristics places the Prague earthquakes in an uncomfortable middle ground between earthquakes that are “clearly not induced” and “clearly induced” on the University of Texas checklist, making a definitive diagnosis unlikely. Meanwhile, the increasing frequency of earthquakes across the midcontinent and the significant size of the Prague earthquakes are causing scientists to rethink the region’s potential seismic hazard.

Is the Public at Risk?

Earthquake hazard is a function of multiple factors, including event magnitude and depth, recurrence interval, and the material through which the seismic waves propagate. These data are incorporated into calculations the USGS uses to generate the National Seismic Hazard Maps.

Updated every six years, these maps indicate the potential for severe ground shaking across the country over a 50-year period and are used to set design standards for earthquake-resistant construction. The maps influence decisions about building codes, insurance rates, and disaster management strategies, with a combined estimated economic impact totaling hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

When the latest version of the maps was released in July, the USGS intentionally excluded the hazard from manmade earthquakes. Part of the reason was the timing, according to Nicolas Luco, a research structural engineer at the USGS. The maps are released on a schedule that dovetails with building code revisions, so they couldn’t delay the charts even though the induced seismicity update wasn’t ready, he says.

Such changes, however, may take years to implement. Luco notes that the building code revisions based upon the previous version of the USGS hazard maps, released in 2008, just became law in California in 2014, a six-year lag in one of the most seismically-threatened states in the country.

Instead, the USGS is currently developing a separate procedure, which they call a hazard model, to account for the hazard associated with induced seismicity. The new model may raise the earthquake hazard level substantially in some parts of the U.S. where it has previously been quite low, according to McGarr. But there are still open questions about how to account for induced seismicity in maps of earthquake shaking and in building codes, Luco says.

McGarr believes that the new hazard calculations will result in more rigorous building codes for earthquake-resistant construction and that adhering to these changes will affect the construction as well as the oil, gas, and wastewater injection industries. “Unlike natural earthquakes, induced earthquakes are caused by man, not nature, and so the oil and gas industry may be required to provide at least some of the funds needed to accommodate the revised building codes,” he says.

But Luco says it may not make sense to incorporate the induced seismicity hazard, which can change from year to year, into building codes that are updated every six years. Over-engineering is also a concern due to the transient nature of induced seismicity. “Engineering to a standard of earthquake hazard that could go away, that drives up cost,” says Justin Rubinstein, a seismologist with the USGS Earthquake Science Center. A further complication, according to Luco, is that building code changes only govern new construction, so they don’t upgrade vulnerable existing structures, for which retrofit is generally not mandatory.

The occurrence of induced earthquakes clearly compounds the risk to the public. “The risk is higher. The question is, how much higher?” Luco asks. Building codes are designed to limit the risk of casualties associated with building collapse—“and that usually means bigger earthquakes,” he says. So the critical question, according to Luco, is, “Can we can get a really large induced earthquake that could cause building collapses?”

Others are wondering the same thing. “Is it all leading up to a bigger one?” asks Keller, former director of the OGS. “I don’t think it’s clear that it is, but it’s not clear that it isn’t, either,” he says. Recalling a magnitude-4.8 tremor that shook southern Kansas in November, KGS’ Buchanan agrees. “I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that these things are going to magically stop at that magnitude,” he says.

Coping with Quakes

After assessing how much the risk to the public has increased, our society must decide upon the best way to cope with human-induced earthquakes. A common regulatory approach, one which Oklahoma has adopted, has been to implement “traffic light” control systems. Normal injection can proceed under a green light, but if induced earthquakes begin to occur, the light changes to yellow, at which point the operator must reduce the volume, rate of injection, or both to avoid triggering larger events. If larger earthquakes strike, the light turns red, and further injection is prohibited. Such systems have recently been implemented in Oklahoma, Colorado, and Texas.

But how will we know if these systems are effective? The largest Rocky Mountain Arsenal-related earthquakes, three events between magnitudes 5.0 and 5.5, all occurred more than a year after injection had ceased, so it’s unclear for how long the systems should be evaluated. Their long-term effectiveness is also uncertain because the ability to control the seismic hazard decreases over time as the pore pressure effects move away from the well, according to Shemin Ge, a hydrogeologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Traffic light systems also rely on robust seismic monitoring networks that can detect the initial, very small injection-induced earthquakes, according to Ge. To identify hazards while there is still sufficient time to take corrective action, it’s ideal to identify events of magnitude 2.0 or less, wrote McGarr and his co-authors in Science. However, the current detection threshold across much of the contiguous U.S. is magnitude 3.0, he says.

Kansas is about to implement a mitigation approach that focuses on reducing injection in multiple wells across areas believed to be underlain by faults, rather than focusing on individual wells, according to Buchanan. He already acknowledges that it will be difficult to assess the success of this new approach because in the past, the KGS has observed reductions in earthquake activity when no action has been taken. “How do you tease apart what works and what doesn’t when you get all this variability in the system?” he asks.

This climate of uncertainty leaves regulators, industry, and the public on shaky ground. As Ladra’s case progresses, the judicial system will decide if two energy companies are to blame for the quake that damaged her home. But it’s our society that must ultimately decide how, and even if, we should cope with manmade quakes, and what level of risk we’re willing to accept.

Fracking’s Hidden Hazards — NOVA Next | PBS.

Federal Reserve Decision: Fed signals that higher interest rates are coming – The Washington Post

History of Interest Rates
Interest Rates From 1960 to 2015

 

*The above chart shows interest rates from 1960 to 2015, and if you click on the picture it will take you to a site where you can put in your own years and compare rates.

Buying a home is normally not a process that requires much political acumen. Over the last several years The Federal Reserve (our nation’s central bank), which is also referred to as “The Fed” has increasingly become a hotbed for political gamesmanship, as well as actual concern for people of differing perspectives. The Federal Reserve essentially sets the interest rates for lending in our nation, and thus when someone is getting a home loan the decisions of The Fed to adjust rates has a real life impact on average citizens, especially when purchasing a home (as this is likely the largest loan that an American citizen will ever take out).

So, with the recent update announcing that The Fed is likely to allow interest rates to rise after several years of keeping them unusually low (and saving borrowers money), at a cost to the American people. Having low interest rates has been a source of economic stimulus that is intended to be paid back later by the American people. With all of this said, you can observe the chart above where it measures the interest rates from 1960 through 2015. We are sitting at a very low level of interest at this time, and though it may go up it may not actually be as scary or ominous as some might make you believe. However, if you are intending to buy a home the time is ripe for getting a loan. The rates will almost assuredly not get any better, and will likely move in the other direction to some degree or another. I have included a mortgage calculator on this site in multiple places, but if you would like to play with the numbers and see how an interest rate hike will affect you feel free to play below:

How Will Interest Rates Affect Me?

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My father Kent Carter has been a mortgage lender for over 30 years, and he has served as President of the Oklahoma Mortgage Bankers Association (OMBA). I of course think he is wonderful, but whether you contact him or someone else this should be the first step that you take if you are interested in buying a home and don’t have the cash to pay for it without a loan. I actually put that on my business cards – if I help someone find their dream home and we need to move quickly to make an offer it is pretty upsetting when they realize that not having a pre-approval letter from a lender means that they must wait and might miss out on a home that they want. So if you are looking to buy a home stop what you’re doing and ask a few lenders what their rates and fees are, don’t wait! Ok, I’ll stop so that you can read the article if you’re interested in learning about The Fed and the current politics of interest rates, but if you are looking to buy a home soon Please don’t wait to line up your lender, and feel free to let me help you buy your next home 🙂

Roadmap to Buying A Home

If you’d like to read about a layman’s experience with buying a home in Oklahoma click the picture of the cute couple above, or Click Here.

-Grady

My Business Card

 

Federal Reserve Decision: Fed signals that higher interest rates are coming

 March 18 at 2:04

The Federal Reserve cleared the way for raising interest rates for the first time in six years, dropping the words “can be patient” from its guidance to investors.

But the central bank’s open market committee said a rate hike was “unlikely” at the April meeting. And while it has indicated that a rate hike could come as early as June, it might also wait until later in the year before boosting rates if inflation remains tame and below or near the 2 percent Fed target.

Higher rates have wide ramifications for global markets and for consumers, who could see higher costs associated with taking out mortgages and car loans.

Ever since the financial panic of late 2008 and 2009, the Fed has kept its target range for federal funds between zero and a quarter of a percentage point, the longest period ever of such low rates. Fed chairman Janet Yellen and other Fed officials have been saying they want to start moving rates back to “normal” levels.

The committee said it would raise the target range for the federal funds rate “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.” It added that the “change in forward guidance does not indicate that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase.”

The Fed has more modest expectations for the economy than it did just three months ago, an outlook that suggests a more cautious approach to boosting interest rates. It said growth “has moderated” while labor market conditions had “improved further.”

The Fed lowered its forecast for economic growth to a high of 2.7 percent in 2015 and 2016, down from an upper end of 3 percent it forecast just three months earlier. Unemployment was a spot for optimism. The Fed said that unemployment this year would edge down to a range between 5.0 and 5.2 percent, slightly lower than its December projections.

Over the past six months, low oil prices have helped keep inflation and inflation expectations modest, spilling over into inflation for other goods. The central bank lowered its own forecast for 2015 core inflation – excluding oil – to a high of 1.4 percent from a forecast high of 1.8 percent last December.

But it has said that the steep drop in oil prices was temporary and some professional economists have blamed bad weather in the northeast for causing gross domestic product to slip about one percentage point.

The open market committee also sought to reassure investors about interest rates beyond the next few meetings. It said that “even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”

While it made scant mention of “international developments,” most economists said that the strong dollar and aggressive steps by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan were already having an effect similar to a rate increase by curtailing U.S. exports.

John Canally, Chief Economic Strategist for LPL Financial, said that the Fed had provided “a spoonful of sugar” to help the change in phrasing go down easily in stock and bond markets. He pointed to lower interest rate expectations among the FOMC members.

In a survey of its own rate expectations, the 17 members of the committee indicated that their own forecasts for the federal funds rate were considerably lower than they were as recently as December.

Today, only four of the 17 said federal funds rates would be 1.125 percent or higher by the end of 2015 and seven of the 17 said the rate would be 0.625 percent or lower. In December, nine of the 17 said the Fed would raise the federal funds rate to 1.125 percent or higher.

The last time the Fed raised rates was 2004, said Canally. “That’s 11 years ago,” he said. “A lot of the guys on bond trading desk now were in high school. It’s a long time ago. There’s no institutional memory.”

That’s why he expects some volatility in stock and bond markets, even though, he notes, stocks have gone up in eight of the last nine years following rate hikes.

Much rests on the Fed’s decisions on the short-term federal funds rate, especially if longer term interest rates follow suit. Canally said that while higher rates would hurt borrowers, especially those seeking short term mortgages or car buying credit, higher rates could also help savers who have an estimated $15 trillion to $20 trillion of interest bearing assets.

Even in the housing sector, the impact of higher federal funds rates could be moderated by the decline in the business of adjustable rate mortgages, which Fannie Mae economist Doug Duncan estimates make up just 4.5 percent of the mortgage market.

Steven Mufson covers the White House. Since joining The Post, he has covered economics, China, foreign policy and energy.

Federal Reserve decision: Fed signals that higher interest rates are coming – The Washington Post.

Roadmap to Buying Your First Home | From The Art of Manliness

There is a website that I was introduced to not very long ago called “The Art of Manliness”, and it turns out that I like it more than I thought I would. I figured that it would be a site written about how to convince yourself that you’re tougher, and cooler than everyone else. It’s actually rather thoughtful, and it’s focus is to teach men how to live strategically, and purposefully – which I think is great in a world where men often seem overly insular. With that said, this article is not specifically written with men in mind. It’s actually written by a couple named Kate and Brett McKay

This article is about what it takes to buy a house from a layman’s perspective. One of the key portions of the article is when it talks about the advantages and costs of using a buyer’s agent (allowing a Realtor® to help you find and buy a house). There are a 2 main points about this that I would like for people to understand:  Realtors® are paid by the seller normally, Looking for and investigating a house on your own can be tedious. Having an advocate who understands the market can be a very good thing, especially if you don’t already know a lot about the industry and have a lot of spare time. This article was written by someone who is not a Real Estate professional, and for that reason I thought it was worth sharing. The article is very honest and straightforward. Please feel free to like, comment, or share – it’s always more fun to have a conversation when there are other people talking too 🙂

If you think that you might be ready to start looking for a house the first thing that you need to do is get your finances in order. There is a mortgage calculator at the top of this page (unless if you are on a mobile device, and then it will be found at the bottom of the page), so feel free to start there and play for a minute. Then you should talk to a lender – talking to a lender is your very first real step. Ok, I’ll stop, but I do encourage you to read this article.

-Grady

Roadmap to Buying Your First Home | The Art of Manliness

by Brett & Kate Mckay

home2

Almost two years ago, I became a homeowner.

I had no idea what I was getting myself into when Kate and I decided we were ready to buy a home. I naively thought there wouldn’t be much to it. Visit some open houses, talk to the bank, sign some papers, and boom, I’d have a piece of the American Dream.

Boy, was I wrong.

Buying a home is a complicated, multi-step process. Down the road we plan to devote entire posts to many of the steps along the way. Today, however, we’ve set out to provide you with the big picture of what to expect when buying your first home. It’s basically the roadmap I wish I had when I was neck-deep in the process.

It should be noted that each state (and country) has vastly different laws regarding real estate. This is a rough idea of the process, but especially when it gets to working with realtors, making offers, and the closing process, things can look quite different. Research you own state’s or country’s processes.

Determine If Buying Is Right for You

Before you start attending open houses and munching on free cucumber sandwiches, you need to figure out if buying a home is even the right move for you. It’s a big decision that comes with huge time and financial commitments. When figuring out whether buying makes sense right now in your life, take into account your finances as well as your future plans. For help in thinking through the pros and cons, check out our guide on whether you should buy a home or rent.

Get Your Financial House in Order

Once you decide to move forward, it’s time to get your financial house in order to prepare for buying a physical one. Here are some things to consider doing:

Start saving for a down payment. If you haven’t already, start saving for a down payment on your mortgage. Most traditional mortgage brokers require that you have at least a 20% down payment to qualify for a mortgage. Even if you’re able to secure a Federal Housing Administration loan (FHA loan – for first-time home buyers only), you’ll still need to have at least a 3.5% down payment (some loans will require a 5% down payment.  For a $250,000 mortgage, that means you’ll need at least $8,500 in the bank, and that doesn’t include all the other costs that go along with buying a home, as we’ll find out later. That’s nothing to sniff at. Start saving today.

Get a copy of your credit report and credit scores. When a bank decides whether to loan you money for a home, one of the things it’s going to look at is your history as a borrower. They want to know that they can trust you to pay back this massive amount of money they’re about to give you. To determine whether you’re creditworthy, the bank or mortgage broker is going to look at your credit report and credit score. Before the banks pull your report and score, it’s a good idea to take a look at them yourself to ensure that there aren’t any errors that could hurt your chances for securing a mortgage. Errors to look for include accounts that don’t belong to you, wrong addresses, incorrect payment status, and remedied delinquencies not reported as such. If you find any errors, take action to correct them as quickly as possible as they can sometimes take a long time (and be nigh near impossible) to fix.

If you don’t have any errors on your credit report, but your credit score isn’t that hot, start taking steps to improve it like paying your bills on time and reducing the amount of debt you owe.

Gather financial documents. When you apply for a home mortgage, your financial life is going to be put under a microscope. You’ll have to provide enough documentation to prove that you’re financially capable of paying back a large loan. I wish I had done this step earlier in the process and not waited until I was actually applying for a loan. Despite having most of my financial documents digitized, it was still a chore corralling them together. Below are the documents you’ll likely need when applying for a mortgage:

  • W2 statements (or 1099 income statements) for the last two years
  • Federal tax returns for the last two years
  • Bank statements for the last few months
  • Recent pay stubs and proof of other income
  • Proof of investment income

Get pre-qualified for a loan. Call up your bank and ask to get pre-qualified for a loan. When you get pre-qualified for a loan a bank takes a cursory look at your financial status and tells you whether you’d be able to qualify, and if so, roughly how much of a mortgage you can get. This can give you a rough idea of how much house you can afford when you’re out looking. Getting pre-qualified is quick and easy. You can usually do it over the phone or even online. One important thing to understand is that getting pre-qualified for a loan doesn’t guarantee that you’ll actually get a mortgage for the amount the bank pre-qualifies you for. That number can change as the mortgage broker takes a deeper look at your finances. Again, it’s a rough estimate.

Start Shopping for a Mortgage

One thing I wish Kate and I had done earlier in our home buying process was shopping for a mortgage. While we were pre-qualified, we didn’t start mortgage shopping until we actually found the home we wanted. There are a few advantages to starting the mortgage shopping process sooner rather than later, like negotiating a better mortgage rate or getting pre-approved (which is different than being pre-qualified – read on) for a loan. When it comes to picking a mortgage, we could write several posts about it (and we will in the future), but for now, let’s move on with the big-picture overview.

Where to get a mortgage.

Start your mortgage shopping with your personal bank or credit union. They often offer good rates for long-time customers. But don’t stop there. Hop online and use a web-based mortgage rate finder like Bankrate.com. You’ll find dozens of mortgage brokers to choose from. It’s worth considering local institutions as well versus just big banks. As with anything, they often provide a personal touch of service that you won’t find elsewhere. If you decide to work with a realtor, they’ll also often have good recommendations or lenders they routinely work with.

What type of mortgage is right for you?

You have several choices when it comes to picking out a mortgage. Each type has their pros and cons.

Fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate loans. The most common type of mortgage is a fixed-rate mortgage. With a fixed-rate loan, the rate stays the same over the life of the loan. The big pro with fixed-rate loans is the peace of mind that comes with knowing that your monthly mortgage payments won’t fluctuate dramatically from year to year.

On the other hand, adjustable rate mortgages, or ARMs as they’re often called, have an interest rate that changes based on what happens to interest rates in the economy as a whole, which can be good or bad. If interest rates drop, your mortgage payment should drop. But if they go up, your payment can quickly get out of hand. ARMs are tempting for first-time home buyers because their initial rates are lower. And because monthly payments on ARMs are typically lower at the beginning of the life of the loan, they can also be easier to qualify for. The problem with ARMs is that you’re taking a big gamble. If interest rates go up, you may end up paying much more than if you had gone with a fixed-rate mortgage.

30-year vs. 15-year. This refers to the number of years it takes to pay off the mortgage. 30-year mortgages are the easiest to qualify for and are the most common. 15-year mortgages are much harder to qualify for and have higher monthly payments because you’re paying off the house in half the time. The obvious benefit is that you pay off the loan and build equity faster than you would with a 30-year mortgage. If you have a goal to pay off your home as quickly as possible, just get a 30-year mortgage and pay extra. Making just one extra payment per year on a 30-year mortgage can reduce the life of the loan by five years. If you ever have to cut back on mortgage payments, you won’t be stuck with the high minimum monthly payments that come with 15-year mortgages. Just make sure you get a 30-year mortgage that doesn’t have prepayment penalties.

Balloon mortgages. Stay away from them. The way they work is that you make small monthly payments for a fixed number of years — usually five to seven — and then you’re required to pay off the loan in one giant lump sum. Balloon mortgages got a lot of homeowners in financial trouble during our recent housing crisis. Folks who thought they’d be able to sell their homes before the lump sum came due were stuck in homes they couldn’t find a buyer for. Consequently, they couldn’t pay their mortgage, which in turn resulted in foreclosure and bankruptcy.

Look into FHA loans. An FHA loan is a home loan insured and backed by the federal government. FHA loans offer low down payments and lower interest rates than traditional home loans. They’re geared towards first-time homeowners who might not have cash to pay the full 20% on a down payment. To apply for a FHA loan, you’ll need to find a FHA-approved lender and meet a few requirements. There are some downsides to FHA loans. First, you’re required to purchase an upfront mortgage insurance premium of 1% of the total loan. You also pay a modest fee with each monthly payment for the life of the loan.Check out the Housing and Urban Development’s website for more info about applying for an FHA loan. 

Get pre-approved for a loan.

Whether you go for a 30-year fixed or a 15-year ARM, your goal should be to get pre-approved for a loan. Pre-approval is a step above pre-qualification. According to theConsumer Financial Protection Agency, when you’re pre-approved for a loan, “the lender has evaluated your creditworthiness and has committed to extending you a loan up to a specified amount.” To get pre-approved, you’ll need to provide a lender with pay stubs and W2s and two to three months worth of bank statements. When a bank pre-approves you for a loan, they’ll issue you a letter that you can show sellers during the negotiation process. Buyers with pre-approval often have a leg up on buyers who don’t. Put yourself in the seller’s shoes. Who would you rather say yes to? The guy with a letter from the bank that says they’ll pay the full amount for the home or the guy who has nothing but his word that he’ll be able to afford the house.

Pre-approval isn’t a guarantee that you’ll get the loan in the end. There’s a chance that something will pop-up in the more thorough loan underwriting process that will cause the lender to change its mind. Think of pre-approval like getting engaged. It’s a commitment, but until you get married (i.e. actually get the mortgage) each party can still back out.

Start Looking at Houses

Watch HGTV. I never watched a minute of HGTV before we started thinking about buying a home. But as soon as we decided to start looking, I was watching House Hunters all the time. While the show is definitely staged, I actually found it to be helpful in getting an idea of what I wanted in a house and how the home buying process, in a very rough sense, worked. It can also help tamper your expectations, as you often find happy-go-lucky couples who just expect to instantly find their dream home and for everything to be perfect. Not how it works in real life. (Watch episodes online even if you don’t have cable.)

Attend open houses. Browse through the real estate section of your local newspaper and find some open houses to attend on the weekends. You can also find listings on popular real estate websites and apps like ZillowTrulia, and Realtor.com. Your goal at these initial open houses is to just get an idea of what you like and don’t like in a home. For me, I found this casual reconnaissance to be immensely useful. For someone who had only lived in one home his entire life (my childhood home), I really didn’t have a good idea on the different types of layouts and amenities possible in a home. Seeing several homes in-person helped me develop my preference. Open houses are also useful for scouting out possible buyer’s agents (more on that later).

Make a list of features your ideal home has and make a list of deal breakers. Once you have an idea of what you like and don’t like in a home, sit down with your spouse and make a list of the features in your ideal home, as well as a list of your deal breakers. What are the things you must have, and what are the things that you absolutely won’t live with? Housing and Urban Development has a nice little PDF to help guide you through the process. Make sure you and your wife are on the same page before you get serious about looking. It will take some negotiation and compromise, but the effort will be well worth it.

Decide whether you want a realtor. During the casual browsing phase of home shopping, decide whether you want a buyer’s agent. Kate and I initially wanted to buy a home without a realtor, but quickly discovered that finding homes that fit our criteria was super time consuming. I was spending hours each week browsing homes online and setting up appointments to look at them. It started to get tedious, so we ended up hiring realtor Ray Nash to help us out. Ray was awesome. We told him our list of likes and dislikes in a home and the next day he created a customized database of homes to browse through. When a new house came on the market that met our criteria, he added it to the database so we could check it out. All we had to do was tell Ray which homes we wanted to look at in person and he set up the appointments to visit them. Ray saved us a boatload of time. It was also nice having someone hold our hand and guide us through a completely foreign process. As we moved towards actually closing on a home, Ray took care of setting up things like the appraisal and inspections as well as ensuring all the loose ends were tied up before closing day.

Now you might be asking, “Will I have to pay for the services of a buyer’s agent?” The answer to that is quite complex, but typically it’s the seller, and not the buyer who pays the commission for the buyer’s and the seller’s agent’s services. However, the buyer and seller can negotiate the price of the home so that the buyer, in effect, pays for the commission of his agent. For details on how real estate agents are paid click here.

Narrow Down Your List of Homes and Revisit Them

It’s time to get serious about finding a home. Narrow down your list of prospective homes to three or four and revisit them. When you do, take along this checklist of things to inspect.

Make an Offer

Once you’ve found the home of your dreams, it’s time to make an offer. Before you do, know your “walk away” number — the price at which you’ll walk away from negotiations because it’s just too high. When crafting your offer, consider adding contingencies like having broken appliances repaired at the seller’s expense. You can even ask that the seller throw in a piece of furniture into the sale. Everything is negotiable!

Some things that can help you get a “yes” on your offer include being pre-approved for a mortgage and being flexible on the closing date. In our case, being flexible with the closing date helped us snag a deal. The guy we bought our home from hadn’t found a new place yet, so we offered to put off the closing date for an extra two months so he could find a new home. We still had a few months left on our apartment lease, so we weren’t in a rush. The other folks interested in buying the house needed to move in ASAP. Flexibility won the day.

When you make an offer, the possible answers are yes, no, or a counteroffer. Don’t expect to get a “yes” on your first offer. Unless you’ve put up a severely lowball offer, the buyer will likely return with a counteroffer. You can either accept it or give another counter. If the seller decides to end negotiations with you, lick your wounds and move on to the next house.

Get the Purchase Contract

Once you get a verbal “yes” from a seller, the next step is writing up a purchase contract. The purchase contract essentially puts everything you negotiated verbally into writing. The typical clauses you see in a purchase contract include the following:

  • Legal description of the property, including zoning information
  • Purchase price and terms of the sale
  • Down payment to be held in escrow, and future payment structure
  • Closing date — when the deed will change hands
  • Any items included in the sale, such as appliances and furniture
  • Disclosure of lead paint (lead-based paint disclosure form for buildings built before 1978) and other defects
  • Home warranties and warranties on appliances
  • Commissions, if any
  • Signatures

Your purchase contract will likely have contingencies that could void the contract if they’re not met. Common contingencies include passing the home inspection, the appraisal meeting the selling price, loan approval, and the title being free and clear.

Get Home Inspected and Appraised

After you’ve signed a purchase contract, your next step is to get the home inspected and appraised. As a buyer, you’re responsible for these costs, so have your checkbook handy. If you have a buyer’s agent, he or she will usually take care of setting up the inspections and appraisal for you.

We had two inspections done on our house. The first was a termite inspection to ensure that we 1) didn’t have termites, and 2) didn’t have any termite damage. The second inspection was a general inspection performed by a certified home inspector. This is a pretty thorough inspection. He’ll check the condition of the house’s heating and cooling systems, electrical systems, plumbing, as well as the structural components of the home like the foundation, walls, and roof. He’ll then create a detailed report that includes things you should be concerned about. It’s good to be at the house during the inspection so you can follow the inspector around and ask questions that you might have. If the inspector finds any serious faults with the home, you’ll need to decide whether to re-negotiate with the seller or just walk away.

The mortgage broker will typically provide a list of approved appraisers that you can call to set up an appointment with. The mortgage broker wants to make sure that the home is actually worth what they’re lending to you. If the appraiser reports that the value of the home is less than the contracted price, your lender will likely not give you the loan. They don’t want to fund something that’s worth less than the amount of the loan. The appraisal contingency will allow you to either 1) renegotiate with the seller for a lower price or 2) walk away from the loan.

Shop for Homeowner’s Insurance

Assuming the inspection and appraisal came out fine, the next thing you’ll want to do is shop around for homeowner’s insurance. Your mortgage broker requires it before they’ll finalize your loan approval. Buying home insurance isn’t that hard. I asked my friends and family which insurance companies they used, called them all to get a quote, and went with the best deal. The cost of homeowner’s insurance (as well as property taxes) is typically rolled into your mortgage payment. The mortgage lender puts that money in an escrow account and pays the cost of homeowner’s insurance themselves.

Finalize Loan Approval

In the few weeks leading up to the closing date, your mortgage broker will be underwriting your mortgage application. The underwriter will likely ask for more documents or they’ll have questions about the documents you’ve already provided. Because I’m self-employed the underwriter had a lot of questions for me. I had to make several trips to their office with stacks of financial documents. Just roll with the punches.

Close

After weeks or maybe months of work, the big day has arrived: Closing Day. Closings typically take place at a title company’s office. Depending on the complexity of the sale, closing usually takes about an hour and a half. Because you’re a buyer, you’re going to have a huge stack of papers to sign and initial, so make sure to warm up those finger muscles. To ensure that the closing goes off without a hitch, make sure to bring the following items:

  • A certified or cashier’s check. Federal law requires that you be told the exact amount of the check you need to bring to closing at least one day before settlement. You will have to pay the down payment, plus the closing costs — usually 3 to 5 percent of your home purchase price minus your earnest money deposit. The closing agent will tell you whether you need one check or two and to whom they should be payable. Do not bring personal checks or cash.
  • Proof of insurance. The closing agent needs to see proof you have the insurance in effect on closing day. Your lender likely has a copy of your proof of insurance, but bring an extra copy just in case.
  • Photo ID. The closing agent needs to know you are who you say you are. A driver’s license or current passport will do the trick.
  • Your agent or attorney. Especially if you are a first-time buyer, you should have someone with you who understands the process and represents your interests. In some states, you’re required to have an attorney present. Check your local laws to find out if that’s the case for you.
  • Purchase and Sales Contract. Just in case you need to double-check a detail against closing costs.

Congratulations! You’re a Homeowner

Once you’ve signed the last document and the closing agent has dropped the keys in your hand, you’re officially a homeowner. Congratulations! Go out and celebrate with a big juicy steak. As soon as you’re done, though, it’s time to start thinking about moving in. But that’s a subject for another post.

Roadmap to Buying Your First Home | The Art of Manliness.

If home is where the heart is I want to help people find the keys to their hearts!

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